Nate Silver Agrees With Me!

You're Right for the Wrong Reasons

I agree with your conclusion but not how you got there. A low-turnout primary is not the same as the Iowa caucuses. Gephardt and Dean in 2004 lost out to Kerry (and Edwards) because they didn't have the organizing ability Kerry had. (Plus, Gephardt's people dug up that Dean tape where he had said years before that the Iowa caucuses were inherently "undemocratic.") The ability of Kerry to rally veterans, alone, gave him an edge that others found hard to beat.

As far as negativity goes, Moran has been the only person in the race to be negative almost from the day McAuliffe jumped into the primary. Deeds, of late, has had his turn at negativity, but Creigh and Terry both have taken the high road.

I see this race as more like the lieutenant governor primary in 2005, where four candidates were vying for the Deemocratic nomination. Leslie Byrne won because she had the best ground game. She worked all parts of the state, peeled away just enough support from the African-American candidate, and won in an election with a very small turnout.

I see Brian Moran - the fellow I initially saw as the strongest candidate - losing in a big way because he has written off the western half of the state and will not pile up the number in northern Virginia he once hoped for. Plus, he angered lots of us with his nasty campaign.

I predict that this will be between Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe. Right now, it's up for grabs. Whoever gets his voters to the polls Tuesday wins this thing. Deeds has the experience with a statewide campaign. McAuliffe has the statewide organization. It'll be close.

I personally like Deeds. I still believe that McAuliffe has the best resources to beat Bob McDonnell.

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by: Elaine in Roanoke @ Sat Jun 06, 2009 at 08:13:57 AM CDT

You, like all McAuliffe supporters

ignore the Clinton Factor.
The Republicans will throw the frickin' kitchen sink at TMac. Moran's "negative campaign" that TMac's supporters whine relentlessly about is a warning. That will be NOTHING compared to what the GOP will do.

Ever stop to think that people neg on TMac so hard because there's so much to neg on him ABOUT? His negatives in polling are higher than Brian's and Creigh's combined.

Al Giordano at The Field, as well as Dylan Loewe in the Huffpo, make a whole bunch of very, very valid points.

You call it a nasty campaign. I call it telling it like it is.

Terry McAuliffe is the Republicans' best hope. I believe him to be the only candidate of the three who absolutely cannot defeat McDonnell.

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by: kestrel9000 @ Sat Jun 06, 2009 at 08:44:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

what Giordano doesn't say

Thanks so much for the link to Giordano.  I haven't read his stuff since Hillary Clinton gave up her race last year.  I think he's very persuasive, and I respect his opinion.  I hadn't really thought of the national consequences for the Dem Party of a McAuliffe win on Tuesday.  Giordano seems to be implying that if McAuliffe were to win on Tuesday, it would be better for the Dem Party for McAuliffe to lose to McDonnell in November.  As a Dem VA voter, I can't think that way.  In addition to McAuliffe's positions on the issues not being that different from Moran or Deeds, undeniably, McAuliffe would be able to be most competitive with McDonnell in fundraising in the general election.  Giordano would say that that's the point - that McAuliffe would have to continue sucking up to the corporate wing of the Dem Party to get his money, leaving the grassroot wing of the Party without a champion.  Giordano doesn't really seem to regard the skills of Moran and Deeds as all that great either on being grassroot champions.   I guess we won't be able to count on Giordano's support if McAuliffe were to win on Tuesday, and that would be a loss.  I still think if McAuliffe does win on Tuesday that the VA Dem grassroots should support the heck out of McAuliffe, challenging him at every turn to pay attention to their issues, but never forgetting that, as corporate oriented as McAuliffe may be, a McDonnell win would be a disaster.

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by: jsrutstein @ Sat Jun 06, 2009 at 10:43:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've been saying this for about 1 month...

..http://commonsenseforva.blogspot.com/2009/05/bigger-they-are-harder-they-fall.html

Terry McAuliffe's entire campaign has reminded of Dean '04. Expensive, "well organized" and more than not, COCKY.

Terry could have secured this thing he just didn't think he had the nomination secured. Virginian's don't like people that think they're entitled to role.

P.S.: Lowell, Waldo and Catzmaw are participating in a debate Sunday Night; http://commonsenseforva.blogsp... It is a surrogate debate between Lowell (McAuliffe), Waldo (Deeds) and Catzmaw (Moran). Please submit a question and watch 7:30PM tomorrow night!  

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by: Bigvinu @ Sat Jun 06, 2009 at 15:43:01 PM CDT