TOPLINES
PPP (647 LV, 2/28-3/1)
February in parenthesis
GOV TOPLINES
McAuliffe 21 (18)
Moran 19 (18)
Deeds 14 (11)
Undecided 46 (-8)
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Wagner 9
Edmonson 6
Signer 5
Savage 4
Bowerbank 3
Undecided 73
FAV/UNFAV
McAuliffe 31/24
Moran 30/14
Deeds 26/10
AREA CODE
ALL 276 434 540 703 757 804
RCD 14 16 18 34 9 7 8
TRM 21 9 22 13 17 36 23
BJM 19 0 2 8 35 16 18
Und 46 75 59 45 39 41 51
In a continuation of trends previously seen, Terry McAuliffe's barrage and siege of Virginia Democrats and Brian Moran digging in his heels are slowly making this a two-way race as the number of undecideds fall steadily. McAuliffe has opened up a 2-point lead over Moran, with Deeds still trailing 7 points behind McAuliffe.
Downballot, the crowded and directionless Lieutenant Governor campaigns are still being ignored by primary voters. Despite campaigning for longer than anyone can remember, Jody Wagner and Jon Bowerbank have been unable to form a top tier.
Terry McAuliffe's push to win African-American voters is paying dividends, with African-Americans giving him a 26-16 lead over Moran. McAuliffe knows that he will be unable to pull enough Northern Virginians away to win, and so by carrying African-Americans, he stands a chance in Richmond, Hampton Roads, and Southside.
Most interesting are the regional splits. From these, we can divine a few conclusions for the candidates:
1. Creigh Deeds is seeing his worst fear realized. As I have maintained all along, two candidates splitting the urban vote still doesn't leave enough votes for a candidate identified as rural in a Democratic Primary. Deeds is drawing his support almost exclusively from west of the urban axis that dominates the primary electorate (area codes 276, 434, and 540). His massive leads in central and southwest Virginia are irrelevant if he doesn't at least crack into the urban areas.
2. Terry McAuliffe's African-American gambit is working. Look at his leads in Southside (434), Hampton Roads (757), and Richmond (804). There, the primary electorate will be impacted by African-Americans. McAuliffe's only window, short of a massive collapse of Moran in Northern Virginia, is to win these areas.
3. Brian Moran still has NOVA. Despite receiving a big fat zero in Southwest, Moran is holding onto a 2-1 lead in Northern Virginia, and is holding his ground in Hampton Roads and Richmond. His NOVA base is enough to bring him even with McAuliffe, now he must solidify white voters in HR & Richmond and/or combat McAuliffe's inroads into the African-American media.
Without urban areas, Creigh Deeds will hit a ceiling which will bring him short. This is not to say he is done for--look at the undecideds--but the urban areas are decisively breaking for the urban candidate. The question for Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe is whether Terry can pull away enough votes in the Commonwealth's two smaller urban areas to offset Brian's massive lead in the Commonwealth's largest. |
