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Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 04:38:26 PM EDT
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TOPLINES
DKOS/R2K (600 LV, 4/6-8)
DEM PRIMARY (D voters only)
04/06 03/30 03/01 02/01
Pollster R2K PPP PPP PPP
Moran 24 22 19 18
McAuliffe 19 18 21 18
Deeds 16 15 14 11
Undec. 41 45 46 53
MORAN-MCDONNELL
04/06 02/05 12/04
Pollster R2K Ras Ras
McDonnell 37 39 37
Moran 36 36 41
Net R+1 R+3 D+4
MCAULIFFE-MCDONNELL
04/06 02/05 12/04
Pollster R2K Ras Ras
McDonnell 40 42 41
McAuliffe 33 35 35
Net R+7 R+7 R+6
DEEDS-MCDONNELL
04/06 02/05 12/04
Pollster R2K Ras Ras
McDonnell 38 39 39
Deeds 31 33 39
Net R+7 R+6 Tie
A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll (crosstabs) shows that Brian Moran continues to hold a small lead in the Democratic Primary, and that Moran is currently the strongest general-election matchup against Bob McDonnell. In results that generally agree with last week's PPP poll, Research 2000 finds that Moran leads in the primary among men and women.
Head-to-head polls between the three Democratic contenders and Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell have not been conducted since February, however, the results are still the same. Brian Moran runs several points ahead of his two Democratic counterparts, including State Senator Creigh Deeds, who lost by only a few hundred votes in a matchup against McDonnell four years ago. Interestingly, Democratic performance in the head-to-heads is probably a few points higher than stated, as African-American voters are displaying unusually high undecided rates (upwards of 30%). Typically, those voters fall behind the Democratic candidate as time goes on.
Research 2000 did not provide regional splits like PPP for the primary vote, however, I would expect that Moran still holds a commanding lead in NOVA, with McAuliffe battling him to a standstill in Richmond and Hampton Roads and Deeds picking up the rest of the state.
As always, I caution against drawing trendlines between different polls, but we work with what we've got here. |
| Kenton Ngo :: POLL: Moran Remains in Lead, Strongest Against McDonnell |
UPDATE: If you want to know why Moran doing better against McDonnell over McAuliffe and Deeds, it isn't just Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia only (127 LV, 27% of sample):
Moran 49
McDonnell 21
McAuliffe 46
McDonnell 22
Deeds 42
McDonnell 21
This shows that Northern Virginians seem slightly more hesitant about McAuliffe and Deeds, but aren't ready to make the jump to McDonnell. However, the 7-point difference between Moran and Deeds only translates to 1.8 points in the overall total.
In fact, Moran does better than Deeds and McAuliffe among every subgroup tested against McDonnell. It's an across the board advantage. |
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| NDP HOUSE RANKINGS |
1. 52 OPEN (R)
2. 42 Albo (R)
3. 86 Rust (R)
4. 34 Vanderhye (D)
5. 50 Miller (R)
Full rankings
Updated: April 17
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