TOPLINES
PPP
GOV TOPLINES
05/22 05/05 03/30 03/01 02/01
McAuliffe 29 30 18 21 18
Moran 20 20 22 19 18
Deeds 20 14 15 14 11
Undec. 31 36 45 46 53
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
05/22 05/05 03/30 03/01
Wagner 22 18 21 9
Signer 11 7 4 5
Bowerbank - 6 4 2
Edmonson - - 4 6
Savage - - - 4
Undec. 68 69 67 73
FAV/UNFAV
05/22 05/05 03/30 03/01 02/01
Moran 38/20 39/11 34/15 30/14 34/10
McAuliffe 37/36 42/25 32/29 31/24 30/24
Deeds 42/16 33/11 31/12 26/10 23/11
AREA CODES (CHANGE)
276 434 540 703 757 804
Moran +10 +3 +7 -3 -- -4
McAuliffe -- -11 -- +4 +2 -4
Deeds -2 +15 -1 +1 +11 +14
Undecided -8 -8 -7 -2 -8 -6
AREA CODES (MAY)
276 434 540 703 757 804
SAMPLE % 4 11 16 29 20 19
Moran 10 8 14 40 14 12
McAuliffe 22 26 24 27 33 34
Deeds 15 30 31 11 19 24
Undecided 53 36 31 23 34 31
After a wave of undecideds in the Richmond and Hampton Roads media markets joined the McAuliffe camp earlier this month, the latest PPP survey indicates that a wave of Richmond and Hampton Roads undecideds has given Creigh Deeds a boost. Meanwhile, Moran's negative strategy has caused McAuliffe's negatives to shoot through the roof, but it remains unclear whether Moran is able to follow up on the remaining undecideds who have soured on McAuliffe and prevent them from switching to Deeds.
While McAuliffe gained last month among HR/Richmond blacks, Deeds appears to have gained support among the region's whites, improving his share of the white vote by 8%. This is terrible news for Brian Moran, who needs the support of any group in those two regions to allow him to pull even. However, there are still a substantial number of undecideds in both regions.
PPP's model expects a whopping 52% of the electorate to be voters that voted only in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of McAuliffe's support comes from these voters who don't remember him as DNC chair, and are therefore unconvinced by the fact that both Deeds and Moran have had long histories in this state's politics.
Among those who only voted in the presidential primary, McAuliffe leads with 34% to Moran's 20% and Deeds' 16%. Most interestingly, among those who have voted in a previous primary, Deeds leads with 26% to McAuliffe's 23% and Moran's 21%.
As I have said multiple times, Brian Moran can win this primary if he pulls even in Richmond and Hampton Roads. So far, Deeds is gaining in those areas, but is too far down in Northern Virginia to easily win. As of now, Terry McAuliffe leads in a high-turnout scenario, but his support is among groups that are most likely to fail to turn out and among black voters who don't have a candidate of their own. In the lowest turnout scenario, Deeds stands a chance of winning provided Northern Virginia turnout is dismal. In a medium turnout scenario, McAuliffe wins by a slimmer margin unless Moran is able to pull even in Hampton Raods and Richmond.
Bottom line: undecideds in this race grow less favorable to Terry McAuliffe as time passes, but so far neither of the other two candidates seem able to convert that into support yet. |
