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Creigh's Social Wedge

by: Kenton Ngo

Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 09:35:53 PM EDT


Remember how there are twice as many pro-choicers supporting Republican Bob McDonnell than pro-lifers supporting Deeds? Remember how socially moderate Fairfax voters were scared to death of George Allen, but deflated their pro-Democratic surge when economics trumped social concerns in 2008? Let's reprise this graph from a couple weeks ago:

While Mark Warner and Tim Kaine skirted social issues, Creigh Deeds has much to gain from pushing hard on them because he lacks a solid, urban base that was going to vote for him by default. Using social issues will solidify social moderates that easily supported Warner and Kaine because they were urban Democrats running against rural Republicans, without causing Deeds to lose any support amongst the social conservatives that were against him anyway.

This morning's front-page article in the Washington Post, Northern Virginia's dominant newspaper, that highlighted Bob McDonnell's frighteningly conservative past is only the opening salvo. To wit:


At age 34, two years before his first election and two decades before he would run for governor of Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell submitted a master's thesis to the evangelical school he was attending in Virginia Beach in which he described working women and feminists as "detrimental" to the family. He said government policy should favor married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators." He described as "illogical" a 1972 Supreme Court decision legalizing the use of contraception by unmarried couples

Expect Deeds' numbers in Northern Virginia to solidify as suburban voters, initially inclined to lean towards the suburban McDonnell, learn of McDonnell's true conservative roots.

Kenton Ngo :: Creigh's Social Wedge
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