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Virginia and the 2012 election

By Mike Signer | September 6, 2011 | One Comment

Hope everyone had a great Labor Day and remembered the cause of working men and women while hopefully enjoying a pleasant holiday weekend.

There’s an interesting piece by UVA’s Larry Sabato in today’s Wall Street Journal posing his take on the 2012 presidential election.  Virginia is one of 7 swing states that Sabato says will likely determine whether President Obama is re-elected.  With some meticulous analysis, Sabato comes up with the following:

Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That’s why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).

Virginia has been a “battleground” state for decades, belying the idea that we’re a deep-red, rock-solid Republican state.  This is one reason that the Democrats who have come out of Virginia — from Chuck Robb onward — often are at the forefront of national political trends, with Mark Warner no exception.  All this means that as Barack Obama figures out how to crack Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes in November 2012, he’ll also be figuring out a formula for how Democrats can win on competitive turf in the years ahead.

Job creation, innovation, government reform, and national competitiveness will all play a role — as will Virginia’s proven allergy to extremism.

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One Response to Virginia and the 2012 election

  1. oldgulph says:

    In 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

    When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes- enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    A survey of 800 Virginia voters conducted on December 21-22, 2008 showed 74% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
    By age, support for a national popular vote was 82% among 18-29 year olds, 75% among 30-45 year olds, 75% among 46-65 year olds, and 68% for those older than 65.
    By gender, support for a national popular vote was 82% among women and 65% among men.
    By political affiliation, support for a national popular vote was 79% for a national popular vote among liberal Democrats (representing 17% of respondents), 86% among moderate Democrats (representing 21% of respondents), 79% among conservative Democrats (representing 10% of respondents), 76% among liberal Republicans (representing 4% of respondents), 63% among moderate Republicans (representing 14% of respondents), and 54% among conservative Republicans (representing 17% of respondents), and 79% among Others (representing 17% of respondents).

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL,CA, NJ, MD, MA, VT, and WA. These 9 jurisdictions possess 132 electoral votes- 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

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