Virginia and the 2012 election
Hope everyone had a great Labor Day and remembered the cause of working men and women while hopefully enjoying a pleasant holiday weekend.
There’s an interesting piece by UVA’s Larry Sabato in today’s Wall Street Journal posing his take on the 2012 presidential election. Virginia is one of 7 swing states that Sabato says will likely determine whether President Obama is re-elected. With some meticulous analysis, Sabato comes up with the following:
Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That’s why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
Virginia has been a “battleground” state for decades, belying the idea that we’re a deep-red, rock-solid Republican state. This is one reason that the Democrats who have come out of Virginia — from Chuck Robb onward — often are at the forefront of national political trends, with Mark Warner no exception. All this means that as Barack Obama figures out how to crack Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes in November 2012, he’ll also be figuring out a formula for how Democrats can win on competitive turf in the years ahead.
Job creation, innovation, government reform, and national competitiveness will all play a role — as will Virginia’s proven allergy to extremism.